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African Nations Brace for a Wave of Coup Attempts
In recent years, the African continent has experienced a surge in successful coups, with nine successful coups occurring since 2020. This sharp increase in government overthrows marks a departure from the relative stability seen in past decades. Many of these coups have been concentrated in the ‘Coup Belt’ of francophone West Africa, affecting countries such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Gabon.
Despite opposition from the United States and actions like barring coup leaders from attending the US-Africa summit, other global powers like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China have been more welcoming to the leaders of these coups. The African Union has also taken steps to bar coup countries from participating in certain elections.
The recent unrest in Kenya, sparked by a controversial tax bill, raises concerns that a coup wave may be spreading to the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, a country already plagued by internal political strife, is also at risk of a government overthrow, according to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. During a recent address to Parliament, Prime Minister Abiy warned against discussing coups, stating that they would not succeed in Ethiopia. The government is reportedly on high alert following perceived coup threats and rumors of discussions between US government officials and Ethiopian opposition party leaders.
Relations between Addis Ababa and Washington have soured in recent times, with the US engaging in talks with Ethiopian opposition parties and influential diaspora members. This has led the Ethiopian government to suspect US involvement in attempts to form a coalition among exiled Ethiopian elites for a possible coup.
While the Ethiopian government has emphasized its efforts to promote a united, peaceful Ethiopia, opposition parties and armed groups have called for a transitional government, which the government has rejected. The ongoing National Dialogue and transitional justice initiatives have been criticized for not being inclusive enough, leading to concerns that a coup may be on the horizon.
Overall, Prime Minister Abiy stressed his government’s commitment to embracing all ethnicities and called for a focus on technology and innovation rather than ethnic divisions. As tensions continue to rise in the region, the threat of coups in Africa remains a concerning trend that could have far-reaching implications for the continent’s stability and future.
