A New Dawn for South African Politics: The Shift from Dominance to Coalition
South Africa is on the cusp of a political transformation that could redefine its governance and economic trajectory. “We are critical, but stable,” asserts Dr. Mtimka, Acting Director of the Raymond Mhlaba Centre for Governance and Leadership and Executive Chair of the South Africa Political Risk Institute. His insights come as the country navigates an unprecedented shift in its political landscape.
Erosion of ANC Dominance
Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has been the dominant political force in South African politics. However, the 2024 elections marked a significant turning point. For the first time, the ANC did not secure an outright majority, receiving only 40.2% of the vote. This marked a clear vote of no confidence in both the country’s political and economic systems, which have been under strain in recent years.
Pre-election polls had anticipated this outcome, and the results confirmed it. The Democratic Alliance (DA) garnered 22% of the vote, followed by former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party with 14.6%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 9.5%.
Coalition Government: A New Paradigm
The election results ushered in a coalition government comprising the ANC, DA, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and eight other smaller parties. This coalition is a seismic shift from the single-party dominance that has characterized South African politics for decades. Dr. Mtimka notes, “This moment represents a potential turning point for South Africa’s democracy: an opportunity to usher in an inclusive and well-functioning political economy or fall down a path of further factionalisation, division, and gridlock.”
The establishment of this coalition required overcoming significant ideological differences, pushing politicians towards pragmatism and compromise. Whether South Africa will emerge from these coalition talks as a more pluralistic and inclusive democracy remains to be seen, but the early signs are promising.
Implications for Governance and the Economy
Dr. Mtimka believes that this transition from a dominant-party system to a multi-party democracy could lead to more effective governance. “Changes from a dominant party to a multi-party democracy will serve to upset patronage networks that hinder effective government operations and enable the development of a more impersonal and merit-based system of rule,” he explains.
The power of individual politicians and their cronies will likely diminish, potentially leveling the playing field and promoting a fairer distribution of benefits, whether in business, employment, or social development opportunities. A coalition government also hints at a stronger opposition and a more balanced relationship between Parliament and the executive branch.
A Model of Democratic Maturity
One of the most commendable aspects of this political shift is the ANC’s acceptance of its reduced majority without resorting to electoral manipulation or causing a political crisis. “We have seen that even the United States is not immune to disputed election outcomes,” Dr. Mtimka observes. “The ANC and President [Cyril] Ramaphosa have set an example in this regard. It bodes well for deepening democracy on the continent, even though circumstances may differ.”
Foreign Policy Concerns
On the international stage, some concerns have been raised about the foreign policy implications of a coalition between the ANC and the DA, given their divergent stances on issues such as BRICS, Russia, and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Whether these ideological differences can be reconciled for the greater good of the country remains an open question. However, Dr. Mtimka is optimistic. “There seems to be enough will at the moment—and I am happy that this will has been imposed directly by voters,” he states.
Conclusion
South Africa stands at a crossroads. The decline of ANC dominance and the advent of a coalition government offer both challenges and opportunities. If managed well, this could lead to a more inclusive, efficient, and democratic political system that better serves the needs of its people. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether South Africa can navigate this new political landscape successfully.
