Turkey’s Foreign Policy Ambitions Meet Reality
In the last decade, Turkey has pursued an assertive and often controversial foreign policy, positioning itself as a regional power broker. Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has sought to expand its influence across the Middle East, North Africa, and beyond. However, these ambitions have frequently clashed with geopolitical realities, leading to a complex web of alliances and conflicts that have significant implications for international peace and stability.
The Rise of Assertive Diplomacy
Turkey’s foreign policy has evolved dramatically since Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Initially characterized by a "zero problems with neighbors" strategy, the country’s approach shifted toward a more assertive stance, particularly following the Arab Spring in 2011. The instability in neighboring Syria and Iraq provided both opportunities and challenges for Ankara.
Turkey supported various opposition groups in Syria with the aim of ousting President Bashar al-Assad, while also conducting military operations to curb the influence of Kurdish militias along its border. These moves intensified its fraught relationship with both Syria and Iraq, while complicating its ties with the United States, a key NATO ally.
Economic and Military Footprints
The Turkish economy, once heralded as a model for emerging markets, has faced severe strains in recent years. High inflation, a depreciating currency, and a growing deficit have put immense pressure on the Erdoğan administration. In such an environment, foreign policy has also been a tool for economic gain. Turkey has signed multiple energy and trade agreements with countries like Qatar and Libya, attempting to bolster its economy through strategic partnerships.
On the military front, Turkey has modernized its armed forces and increased its defense capabilities. This includes the controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which led to its expulsion from the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program. Despite such setbacks, Turkish military hardware, such as drones, have seen significant deployment in conflict zones, showcasing the country’s indigenous defense industry.
Navigating Complex Alliances
Turkey’s relationship with the European Union remains complex. EU membership, a long-term objective for Ankara, seems increasingly unlikely amidst ongoing disputes over human rights, democratic backsliding, and maritime tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Relations with Greece and Cyprus have been particularly strained over issues related to territorial waters and energy exploration rights.
Similarly, Turkey’s involvement in the Libyan Civil War, alongside its military support for the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), has drawn criticism from several EU member states. This interventionism has earned Ankara both strategic leverage and international condemnation.
Additionally, Turkey’s engagement with African nations has expanded, focusing on both economic investments and military cooperation. While this has garnered some success, it has also led to accusations of neo-imperialism from various quarters.
The Kurdish Question
One of Turkey’s most enduring and contentious challenges is the Kurdish question. Efforts to suppress Kurdish separatist movements, both domestically and in neighboring countries, have often led to accusations of human rights abuses. The conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and several other nations, remains a central issue. This has further strained Ankara’s relationships with Western allies, particularly the United States, which has supported Kurdish forces in the fight against ISIS in Syria.
Looking Ahead
Turkey’s attempt to balance economic imperatives, military assertiveness, and complex alliances is fraught with difficulties. The international landscape is increasingly multipolar, with rising tensions between major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia. In this context, Turkey’s foreign policy choices will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications, not only for its own geopolitical standing but also for broader regional and global stability.
While Erdoğan’s administration continues to pursue a vision of Turkey as a major global player, the road ahead is uncertain. Economic vulnerabilities, internal political dynamics, and resistance from other regional powers will test Ankara’s resilience and adaptability in the coming years.
For more insights into Turkey’s evolving foreign policy, visit Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
