By Chris Hattingh, from the Centre for Risk Analysis, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) declared the final results of the national election on 2 June, revealing that the African National Congress (ANC) has secured below 50% of the vote for the first time. The ANC garnered 40.18% of the vote in this election, a significant decrease from its previous performance. In 1994, the ANC obtained 252 seats in the National Assembly (NA), but in 2024, it only secured 159 seats. This marks a 17-percentage point decline for the party from 2019 to 2024.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) remains the official opposition, achieving 21.81% of the vote and claiming 87 seats in the NA. The party performed strongly in its traditional stronghold, the Western Cape, with 55% of the vote, and also saw growth in voter support in Gauteng, securing 26.63% of the vote.
Post-election discussions are underway between the DA and its fellow parties in the Multi-Party Charter, as well as potentially with the ANC. Market and investor preference leans towards an ANC-DA coalition at the national level. It is suggested that a confidence-and-supply arrangement would benefit both parties and the country in terms of stability and growth prospects.
Two possible paths have emerged for a potential ANC-DA partnership: a formal coalition agreement involving several other parties, or a more flexible confidence-and-supply arrangement that includes the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). While the former option may provide short-term reassurance to markets, the latter offers greater stability and alignment on government priorities over the long term.
An ANC-DA confidence-and-supply agreement would see the ANC retain the executive role while the DA assumes parliamentary positions such as the speakership and positions in committees. This arrangement ensures support for crucial government business, such as budget passage, while allowing each party to maintain its unique identity and policy values.
With the ANC’s decline in voter support from 69% in 2004 to just above 40% in the current election, Cyril Ramaphosa faces the task of navigating coalition negotiations with various political parties. As the DA seizes the opportunity to expand its influence within the government, it must remain true to its identity and voter concerns to remain effective in the future.
Of the top four parties in South Africa (ANC, DA, MK, EFF), two prioritize upholding the Constitution and rule of law, while the other two may lean towards weakening constitutional safeguards. A confidence-and-supply agreement could steer the ANC and DA towards maintaining the country’s commitment to democratic values and governance principles.
