Russia Halts BRICS Expansion Ahead of 2024 Summit in Kazan
In an unexpected move, Russia has announced a suspension on the expansion of BRICS, an informal group comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, just ahead of the XVI BRICS Summit. This decision arrives as numerous countries with interconnected interests were scheduled to gather in Kazan, the capital city of the autonomous Republic of Tatarstan, often referred to as Russia’s window to the Islamic world and to be the BRICS+ capital in 2024.
BRICS: An Emerging Global Powerhouse
BRICS has often been described as an informal but pivotal association seeking to reshape the global economic architecture. Recently, it welcomed five new members—Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—thus becoming a formidable bloc challenging the existing dominance of the US and Europe. This expansion represents a significant shift in global dynamics, especially as the group criticizes traditional institutions like the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank for their focus on Western interests.
BRICS has introduced revolutionary concepts such as ‘de-dollarization’ and ‘multipolarity’ to help ensure more equitable global development and security. With these new additions, BRICS’s cumulative global GDP has surged to 36%, while its population now accounts for 46% of the world’s populace.
The Controversy over Expansion
Russia has taken over the presidency of BRICS for 2024, planning to guide the group on three primary principles: creating a new economic structure, respecting sovereignty, and fostering fair international participation. However, the sudden decision to halt the enrollment of new members has sparked discussions about the internal dynamics and future of the association.
The idea of expanding BRICS has been circulating for years, with over 30 countries expressing interest in joining. Despite this, only five made the cut in the latest South African Summit under President Cyril Ramaphosa. The remaining nations must now wait due to the absence of concrete criteria and a reliance on the flexible concept of ‘consensus’ during the selection process.
Procedures and Strategic Goals
Historically, China has been a significant proponent of the BRICS+ format aimed at attracting non-participating countries to join the association. While BRICS activities span education, health, science, technology, and more, the key question remains: Is the emphasis on expanding membership more about quantity rather than quality?
At the recent Primakov Readings held in Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized the shift towards a multipolar world and the obsolescence of the unbalanced model of globalization. Lavrov’s remarks underscored the importance of new global players from Asia, Africa, and Latin America—regions home to the majority of the world’s population.
The Decision to Pause
The BRICS Foreign Ministers Council meeting in Nizhny Novgorod saw Lavrov announce the suspension of new memberships. He explained that the pause would allow the organization to consolidate its recent expansions and create a structured category of ‘partner countries’ to serve as a stepping stone toward full membership. This move aligns with the Johannesburg II Declaration from 2023, which tasked foreign ministers with refining the partner-country model.
Domestic and Global Implications
Internally, BRICS faces the challenge of ensuring stability amid its diverse membership. The association must carefully navigate these complexities to maintain its cohesion. Analysts argue that divergent interests in politics, economy, and culture could pose significant hurdles. For instance, India’s tense relations with China add layers of complexity to the group’s internal dynamics.
Externally, countries in the Global South and Global East are keen to leverage BRICS as a platform for sustainable development and global justice. However, shifting alliances from Western institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, to BRICS implies substantial economic re-orientation, which may not be straightforward for many developing countries.
Russia’s Influence and the African Dimension
While China has long been deeply involved in Africa, Russia is relatively new in rebuilding its connections with the continent. Analysts like Gustavo de Carvalho argue that African countries are cautious about allying too closely with either China or Russia to avoid becoming pawns in global disputes.
Russia has made efforts to boost ties with Africa, especially since the deterioration of its relations with the West post-Crimea annexation in 2014. Despite being a major arms supplier to Africa, Russia’s overall trade lags behind China’s.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the suspension of BRICS expansion underscores a strategic pause to allow for internal consolidation and external recalibration. The dynamics within BRICS and its relationships with countries across the globe will shape its future trajectory. BRICS’s emphasis on multipolarity and equitable global development indicates a transformative vision for the global economic and political landscape.
BRICS’s future lies in balancing internal cohesion and external partnerships, aiming to act as a counterbalance to Western dominance while fostering a multipolar world order. As the 2024 Kazan Summit approaches, all eyes will be on how BRICS navigates its next steps amid a rapidly changing global context.
