Following a year of significant GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and consolidated social welfare under President Lula, Brazil faces a potentially volatile political landscape. A series of events, including tension with international business elites, military officials, and evangelical Christians, has provoked a surge of negative press, similar to the smear campaigns prior to the 2016 coup against former President Rousseff.
As Lula’s traditionally high approval ratings drop and with the potential reelection of Donald Trump, whose hard-right backers maintain close ties with the Bolsonaro family, fears of a destabilization campaign or coup attempt are mounting. Meanwhile, Lula’s strained relations with Brazil’s traditional agribusiness families and multinational corporations may force him into uncomfortable political compromises.
Moreover, efforts to purge the military’s coup supporters and transfer jurisdictional investigations to civil courts have triggered backlash from influential individuals within the armed forces. This backlash is a worrying parallel to previous coups, such as the one attempted by General Sylvio Frota in 1977 during Brazil’s military dictatorship.
Internationally, Lula’s critical comments on Israel’s actions in Gaza have stoked the anger of Brazilians’ Zionist lobby group CONIB and Evangelical Christians. The latter, comprising approximately 31% of the country’s population, is one group that the Workers’ Party had been gradually gaining support from.
Bolsonaro’s allies appear to be rallying support as they brace themselves for a confrontation. An estimated 69,000 people flocked to São Paulo in February, with allegations emerging that the crowds were funded by right-wing politicians, with the intent of publicizing their resistance in both local and international media.
Simultaneously, in the financial sector, an unexpected policy change by the government-controlled oil company, Petrobras, to decrease its dividend payouts has deeply unsettled elites, especially foreign shareholders. The controversial move forms part of Lula’s plan to rebuild the company after its systematic dismantling post-Rousseff’s coup.
Chico Cavalcante, a Brazilian political analyst, suggests that this combination of socio-political factors reflects a strategy of hybrid warfare- a contemporary form of political struggle involving a continuous destabilization of governments through press and social networks.
The potential for another coup in Brazil, which would be the country’s fourth in less than 100 years, depends on various factors. If Trump is elected again, there’s a likelihood that his administration could collaborate with Lula’s detractors, considering their close connections with the Bolsonaro family. This possibility falls into a historical pattern of US interference when nations in the Global South attempt to exercise independent sovereignty.
The question that still lingers is: Will history repeat itself, leading to yet another political power struggle in Brazil?
